Leadership Development and the Sigmoid Curve

by Mark Evenden at Developing People International.

Charles Handy published a book in 1995 called the ‘Empty Raincoat’ in which he discussed a range of paradoxes and in particular the paradox of the Sigmoid curve and its implications for organisations. In essence, Handy was explaining that all organisations have life cycles (analogous to product life cycles) that are fairly predictable and can be expressed in terms of 5 shaped curves. The curves show how organisations form and start to grow, before eventually reaching a peak and then starting to decline. The time span for the growth, maturity and decline may be very long or fairly short.

For example I have worked in the UK tableware ceramics sector, the growth and decline of which has spanned several hundred years. Compare this to the life of a consumer product such as a mobile phone when most of us want an upgrade after 12 months.

Handy argues that it is critical for an organisation to begin a second wave / curve of organisational / business development before the first peak finishes and not wait until pending disaster has become clear to everyone (as with the UK tableware market). In my view one of the most successful organisations to achieve this reinvention of itself has been Apple. Just as you think that the market is bored with their latest products – out they come with a new one!

Unfortunately, I don’t believe there is a simple way of calculating exactly how long an organisation will take to reach a peak or when the decline will start.
This is of course a paradox because why change something when everything is apparently going so well?

Yet in my view one of the crucial roles of leadership is to identify when exactly to change. This takes vision and courage from the leader because in the short term the risk to changing the business may appear to be huge. Leaders therefore need to be forward thinking and be able to see the “big picture” and make best ‘estimates’ about what will happen in the future, new trends, changing market forces etc.
However leaders need also to be aware of their own and their organisations’ mind sets. A “mind set” is a “way of doing things” that can ultimately be a limiting belief. Mindsets constrain leaders and their organisations.

The following are examples of organisational mindsets
* “All watches must have hands.”
* “All letters must be sent by post.”
* “You need film to take photographs.”
* ‘Couples getting married will want an expensive dinner service as a wedding present’

To be successful I believe leaders need to continually challenge, innovate and develop if they are to successfully reinvent themselves as well as helping to reinvent their organisations. In the words of Marcel Proust - “The real act of discovery consists not in seeking new lands but in having new eyes”.